Updated August 15, 2026. If you only read the crash list, you’d think every vacation town is Punta Gorda. They’re not.

Same curated beach / lake / ski universe. Same Zillow method. These metros are still within about 1% of their post-2021 peak as of June 2026 — while Florida Gulf sits 12–24% under.

Crash ranking: 15 that fell hardest · Story: listicle · Data table: vacation towns

1. Ocean City, NJ — ~0% from peak

Typical value ~$805,000 · still about +90% vs 2019

Jersey Shore demand didn’t give back the pandemic high the way SW Florida did.

2. Barnstable Town, MA (Cape Cod) — ~0% from peak

~$773,000 · ~+72% vs 2019

Northeast coastal scarcity + legacy second-home demand. Not the insurance/STR squeeze story dominating Florida headlines.

3. Virginia Beach, VA — ~0% from peak

~$377,000 · ~+53% vs 2019

Bigger, more diversified coastal metro — held the peak line.

4. Traverse City, MI — ~0% from peak

~$427,000 · ~+73% vs 2019

The “Midwest lake house” counterexample to the viral dump thesis. Peak held.

5. Holland, MI — ~0% from peak

~$352,000 · ~+70% vs 2019

Lake Michigan shoreline. Same region, same story.

6. Muskegon, MI — ~0% from peak

~$259,000 · ~+80% vs 2019

Lower absolute prices than Traverse City, still no peak gap.

7. Duluth, MN — ~0% from peak

~$269,000 · ~+66% vs 2019

Lake Superior. Remote-work era gains stuck around.

8. Steamboat Springs, CO — ~0% from peak

~$1.14M · ~+102% vs 2019

Not every ski town is Breckenridge (−14%). Steamboat is basically still at the high.

9. San Luis Obispo, CA — ~0% from peak

~$911,000

California coast that didn’t print a Florida-style gap.

10. Edwards, CO — ~0% from peak

~$1.32M · ~+92% vs 2019

Vail Valley. Ultra-high-end mountain inventory that held the index high.

What this means for the viral take

  • Inheritance + insurance pressure can still hit Florida and wildfire/coastal risk zones harder than Great Lakes.
  • “All vacation towns → rock bottom” fails the ZHVI test for Michigan lakes and several Northeast/California coasts.
  • Wealth concentration arguments (ultra-high-net-worth buyers) fit places like Edwards/Steamboat better than mid-tier Gulf condos.

FAQ

So should I wait for lake houses to crash?

The June 2026 index says many Great Lakes metros never left the peak. Waiting for a Florida-style −20% may mean waiting for a different market regime than the data shows today.

Where’s the full source list?

Ranked crash page (includes the “didn’t crash” section) and filterable table.