Updated July 22, 2026. People ask two different questions and mix them up:
- “Have U.S. home prices crashed?” — Generally no. The national typical home value is still far above 2019.
- “Did my market get back to its 2021–2022 (or 2024) peak?” — Often no. That is the stuck-buyer question.
We measured the second one directly: for every state and metro, take the highest Zillow home value from January 2021 through June 2026, then compare it with June 2026.
Results:
- 15 states are still at least 1% below that peak — led by D.C., Arizona, Florida, Colorado, and Texas. Full list: states still below peak.
- 25 of the 100 largest metros are at least 2% below peak — led by Austin, Cape Coral, North Port, New Orleans, and Phoenix. Full list: metros still below peak.
- Hundreds of markets are at or near their highs. Nationally, values remain elevated versus 2019 on our Home Price Index.
Quick answer: are home prices still below peak?
It depends on the place. The U.S. average can look “fine” while your metro is still 10–25% under its local high. Always check local ZHVI, not the national headline.
Tools:
- Home prices by metro (2019 vs June 2026)
- Home prices by state
- Peak-gap metro ranking
- Peak-gap state ranking
What “stuck” or “underwater” actually means
| Term | What it means | What it does not mean |
|---|---|---|
| Below peak | Typical home value is lower than the highest month since Jan 2021 | That 2019 buyers lost money |
| Underwater | You owe more on the mortgage than the home would sell for | The same thing as “metro is below peak” |
| Locked in | You have a low rate and moving would raise your payment | That list price must keep rising |
A market can be below peak while you still have equity. Or you can be underwater in a market that looks “only” 5% below peak if you bought with little down payment.
Where peak buyers are most exposed
Deep big-metro gaps: Austin (−27%), Cape Coral (−19%), North Port (−17%), Phoenix (−11%), San Francisco (−9%), Denver (−9%), Dallas (−8.5%). Deep dives: Austin, Florida, Phoenix.
State-level gaps: D.C. (−13%), Arizona (−9%), Florida (−7%), Colorado (−7%), Texas (−6%).
What to do with this information
- Find your metro/state on the rankings linked above.
- Compare buy vs rent with current payment math on Rent vs Buy.
- Stress-test affordability at today’s rates with the home affordability calculator.
- Do not confuse national CPI housing with your sale price. Local ZHVI is the closer guide for “did we get back to the peak?”
FAQ
Did U.S. home prices recover in 2026?
Nationally, values remain high versus 2019. Locally, many boom markets never fully recovered their own peaks.
How do I know if I am underwater?
Compare your remaining loan balance with a realistic sale price after costs — not with the 2022 listing you saw on Zillow at the top.
Are home prices falling nationwide right now?
Not uniformly. Use state and metro pages; national averages hide Austin-style and Cape Coral-style gaps.
Where is the data from?
Zillow ZHVI through June 2026. Method notes are on the state and metro ranking posts.