Where Ground Beef Prices Are Now
As of January 2026, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the average retail price for 100% ground beef at $6.75 per pound (U.S. City Average). That's 79% above the 2017 baseline of $3.77/lb. Unlike eggs or chicken wings, ground beef has not had a sharp correction — the trend has been a steady, unbroken climb from $3.77 (2017) to $4.17 (2020), $4.48 (2021), $4.85 (2022), $5.09 (2023), $5.35 (2024), $6.12 (2025), and $6.75 (January 2026).
For the full timeline and source data, see our Ground Beef Index tracker.
Why Ground Beef Prices Have Spiked
The primary driver is the cattle cycle. The U.S. beef cow herd shrank to its smallest size since the 1960s. Years of drought in key cattle-raising states — Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma — forced ranchers to liquidate herds. Rebuilding a cattle herd takes 3–4 years: cows need time to grow and breed, so supply cannot respond quickly to high prices. Feed costs, labor costs at processing plants, and transportation expenses have all added pressure. The wholesale-to-retail spread has also widened, so more of the price increase is showing up at the grocery store rather than being absorbed by the supply chain.
Why There's Been No Correction
Eggs and chicken wings saw supply recover and prices fall. Ground beef is different. Cattle are a long-cycle commodity. Once the herd is reduced, it takes years to expand again. Drought conditions in the Plains have eased in some areas but herd rebuilding is still in early stages. There is no short-term supply surge on the horizon — the squeeze is structural and will persist well into 2026–2027.
When It Might Ease
Relief depends on herd expansion. As ranchers retain more heifers and rebuild inventory, eventually more cattle will come to market and beef supply will rise. That typically lags by several years after drought ends. Barring another major drought or shock, the rate of price increase may slow, but a return to 2017-level ground beef prices is unlikely without a significant drop in feed costs and a much larger herd. For now, ground beef — once the affordable protein default — has become a budget stretch for many households. Chicken, pork, and plant-based alternatives are gaining ground as price-conscious shoppers adjust.
The Bottom Line
The Ground Beef Index tells a story of sustained inflation with no correction yet. From $3.77/lb in 2017 to $6.75/lb in January 2026, the climb is 79%. The cattle cycle and drought-driven herd liquidation are the main causes; structural costs and a wider retail spread have added to the rise. For the complete series and methodology, see the Ground Beef Index (BLS/FRED series APU0000703112).
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — series APU0000703112, average retail price per pound for 100% ground beef, U.S. City Average. USDA cattle inventory and drought impact reports. Industry data on feed costs, processing labor, and wholesale-to-retail margins.