The Ground Beef Index

Ground beef prices have risen relentlessly, hitting a record $6.12/lb in mid-2025 and reaching $6.69/lb by December 2025 — an eye-watering 19.3% year-over-year increase. Unlike eggs or chicken wings, there's been no correction. The trend is a steady, unbroken climb.

The driver is the cattle cycle. The U.S. beef cow herd shrank to its smallest size since the 1960s, the result of years of drought in key cattle-raising states (Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma) that forced ranchers to liquidate herds. Rebuilding a cattle herd takes 3-4 years — cows need time to grow and breed — so the supply squeeze will persist well into 2026-2027.

Feed costs, labor costs at processing plants, and transportation expenses have all added pressure. The wholesale-to-retail spread has also widened, meaning more of the price increase is happening at the retail level rather than being absorbed by the supply chain.

For consumers, ground beef — once the affordable protein default — is becoming a budget stretch. Chicken, pork, and plant-based alternatives are gaining ground as price-conscious households adjust their protein mix.