The Menu Price Is Just the Start
Dining at a sit-down restaurant has become meaningfully more expensive through a double whammy: menu price inflation and expanded tipping expectations. The average check at a full-service restaurant has increased roughly 25-30% since 2019. An entree that was $16 is now $20-22. A cocktail that was $10 is now $14-16.
Then comes the tip screen. Default suggestions on point-of-sale systems have crept from 15/18/20% to 18/20/25%, with some showing 20/25/30%. Tip prompts now appear at coffee shops, bakeries, and fast-casual counters — contexts where tipping was historically rare. The social pressure has expanded even as the baseline percentage increased.
Why Restaurants Keep Raising Prices
Operators face a brutal cost environment. Food costs (28-35% of revenue) have increased with grocery inflation. Labor costs (30-35% of revenue) have surged with minimum wage increases and worker competition. Many independent restaurants run on 3-6% net margins — there's almost no room to absorb increases without passing them through.
For diners, the math has shifted. A weekly restaurant habit that cost $400-500/month in 2019 now runs $550-700. Industry surveys show 40% of consumers eat out less frequently than two years ago, with cost as the primary reason. The restaurant industry isn't in crisis, but it's serving a smaller, less-frequent customer base at higher prices.