The $15 Combo Meal
Remember when fast food was the budget option? A Big Mac combo that cost $5.99 in 2019 now runs $11.49 in most markets. Chipotle burritos have crossed $10. Even Taco Bell, long the value king, has seen its average ticket climb 35%. The fast food value proposition has fundamentally eroded.
Meanwhile, grocery inflation — while real — has actually been more moderate. The overall food-at-home CPI is up about 25% since 2020, while food-away-from-home is up 28%. But the real story is in the math: a home-cooked chicken dinner for a family of four costs roughly $12-15 in ingredients. The equivalent at a fast-casual restaurant is $45-55.
The Time Tax Argument
Defenders of fast food point to the time cost of cooking. But meal prep strategies — batch cooking on Sundays, slow cooker recipes, sheet pan dinners — can bring the time investment down to 20-30 minutes per meal. When fast food saves you 15 minutes but costs 3x more, the hourly 'wage' of cooking at home has never been higher.
Consumer behavior is shifting. Fast food traffic declined 3-4% in 2024 as households responded to 'sticker shock' at drive-throughs. Grocery prepared food sections — rotisserie chickens, pre-made salads, deli sandwiches — have become the new middle ground: more convenient than cooking from scratch, cheaper than restaurants.